GLOBAL BOND MARKETS
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THEMES AFFECTING Bonds
ISHARES GLOBAL UTILITIES ETF
ISHARES US UTILITIES ETF
Bonds as related to other asset classes
Bond prices and bond yields are many times the drivers behind price movements in currencies and other asset classes. In this section, we aim to explain how those movements are being perceived and traded by our dedicated contributors and in-house analysts.
Utilities are big borrowers and their profits are enhanced by lower interest costs. Conversely, the utility average tends to decline when investors expect rising interest rates. Because of this interest-rate sensitivity, the Utilities Average is regarded by some as a leading indicator for the stock market as a whole.
Utilities are part of our Risk-On/Off indicators you can find by clicking here.
Bond prices and bond yields trend in opposite directions. This is important for understanding most of the analysis and news published on this page.
It's also important to know the underlying dynamic on why a bond's yield is rising
or falling: it can be based on interest rate expectations or it can be based on market sentiment -uncertainty- and a "flight to safety" to bonds
which are traditionally considered less risky.
The rate of change of interest rates, either the target rate or market rates,
is important because this causes either stocks or bonds become more attractive. When this happens prices will tend to trend as money flows from one vehicle to the
other until the new relationship is adequantely reflected in prices.
Bonds and stocks are always competing for investor money, and less so commodities. These
usually trend in opposite direction of bond prices (falling commodity prices usually produce higher bond prices, vice versa); therefore, commodities would trend in the same direction as interest rates.
US Treasuries explained
If you are trading USD based or quoted pairs, watch the US bond market since a movement in Treasury yields impacts the US dollar. The driver of many movements in Treasury yields are partly driven by comments from Fed officials, so pay close attention to any news coming from US monetary authorities. US stocks usually get a boost from rising bond prices (falling Treasury yields), specially in inflationary times. But if they don't, then it's worth looking for market sentiment and reasons why the equity markets appear to be taking a more cautious stance. US stocks prices can also rise with falling Treasury prices (with rising yields) during a deflationary environment. In this case stocks and interest rates rise together which spurs global demand for the US Dollar.
UK Gilts explained
Global bond prices tend to move in synchrony. But there are moments when a country's bond market experiences a sharper movement than other bonds markets. Sometimes it may be a currency movement: The Gilt is the 10-year benchmark in the UK fixed income market. It's correlation to the Sterling is usually positive and decoupling between both markets serves as an early alert that some Intermarket relationship has changed. Changes in foreign exchange prices can overwhelm relative return calculations for international investors buying Gilts as an investment. When stripped out the currency component, UK Gilts should still provide some return to investors otherwise other bond markets, Treasuries for instance, may become attractive.
It is also true that a prolonged trend in energy prices is also a factor to consider as it will affect inflation expectations and thereby BOE's monetary policies.
Latest Latest Bonds & Interest Rates Analysis
Editors' picks
EUR/USD edges lower to near 1.0750 after hawkish remarks from a Fed official
EUR/USD extends its losses for the second successive session, trading around 1.0750 during the Asian session on Wednesday. The US Dollar gains ground due to the expectations of the Federal Reserve’s prolonging higher interest rates.
GBP/USD hovers around 1.2500 on the stronger US Dollar, focus on BoE rate decision
The GBP/USD pair trades on a softer note around 1.2500 on Wednesday during the Asian session. The USD Index recovers modestly to 105.40, which drags the major pair lower. Investors focus on the upcoming Bank of England's monetary policy meeting.
USD/JPY extends recovery above 154.50 amid firmer US Dollar
The USD/JPY trades in positive territory for the third consecutive day around 154.75 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The higher-for-longer US rate narrative continues to support the US Dollar and lift the pair.
Gold price gains momentum, despite a firmer US Dollar
Gold price attracts some buyers during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. Safe-haven demand, fueled by geopolitical tensions and uncertainty, as well as ongoing central bank purchases, might contribute to a rally in gold.
WTI remains on the defensive around $78.00 amid signs of easing supply tightness, stronger US Dollar
Western Texas Intermediate, the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $78.00 on Wednesday. The black gold edges lower due to a stronger US Dollar and signs of easing supply concerns. Oil traders will shift their focus to the EIA Crude Oil stockpiles report due later on Wednesday.