AUD/USD Forecast and News
Australian Dollar remains tepid amid less hawkish stance from the RBA
The Australian Dollar lost ground after the RBA’s policy decision to keep its interest rate unchanged. The Australian Central Bank maintained its forward guidance of "not ruling anything in or out." The US Dollar appreciated due to sentiment of the Fed prolonging higher interest rates.
Latest Australian Dollar News
AUD/USD Technical Overview
The Australian Dollar trades around 0.6570 on Wednesday. The pair consolidates within a symmetrical triangle pattern, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) above the 50-level, suggesting a bullish bias.
The AUD/USD pair could potentially find the barrier at the psychological level of 0.6600, followed by the upper boundary near the major support level of 0.6650. A breakthrough above this level might prompt the pair to revisit March’s high of 0.6667, followed by the psychological level of 0.6700.
On the downside, the AUD/USD pair may encounter immediate support at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6564. If the pair breaks below the EMA, it could face further pressure to navigate the region around the lower boundary of the symmetrical triangle around the level of 0.6465.
Fundamental Overview
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has plunged following the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)'s decision to maintain its interest rate at 4.35% on Tuesday. Investor sentiment leaned toward a potentially more hawkish stance from the RBA, particularly after last week's inflation data surpassed expectations. However, the RBA acknowledged that recent advancements in curbing inflation have halted, maintaining its forward guidance of "not ruling anything in or out."
The Australian monthly inflation surged in March, contrary to market expectations of stagnation. Additionally, the RBA Governor Michele Bullock emphasized the importance of remaining vigilant regarding inflation risks. Bullock believes that current interest rates are appropriately set to steer inflation back towards its target range of 2-3% in the second half of 2025 and to the midpoint in 2026.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, gains ground due to the sentiment of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) maintaining higher interest rates for longer. Additionally, the hawkish comments from Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari have bolstered the US Dollar, consequently weakening the AUD/USD pair.
President Kashkari indicated that the prevailing expectation is for rates to stay steady for a considerable duration. Although the likelihood of rate hikes is minimal, it's not entirely dismissible, as per a Reuters report.
SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly AUD/USD forecasts? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the Australian Dollar-US Dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
AUD/USD: Interim top confirmed, 0.7000 at risk Premium
The AUD/USD pair kept falling in the last few days, reaching a fresh multi-week low of 0.7263 on Friday, to close the trading week a handful of pips above it.
AUD/USD Big Picture
AUD/USD Bullish Themes
AUD/USD Bearish Themes
Latest AUD Analysis
Editors' picks
EUR/USD retreats to 1.0750, eyes on Fedspeak
EUR/USD stays under modest bearish pressure and trades slightly near 1.0750 on Wednesday. Hawkish comments from Fed officials help the US Dollar stay resilient and don't allow the pair to stage a rebound.
GBP/USD struggles to hold above 1.2500 ahead of Thursday's BoE event
GBP/USD stays on the back foot and trades in negative territory below 1.2500 after losing nearly 0.5% on Tuesday. The renewed US Dollar strength on hawkish Fed comments weighs on the pair as market focus shifts to the BoE's policy announcements on Thursday.
USD/JPY surges to near 155.50 as Fed expects to prolong policy rates
USD/JPY extends winning streak amid hawkish sentiment surrounding the Fed’s stance on monetary policy. Fed's Kashkari anticipates the prolonging of elevated rates and suggests that further rate hikes are not entirely ruled out. The Japanese Yen depreciated despite the potential for intervention by Japanese authorities.
Gold fluctuates in narrow range below $2,320
After retreating to the $2,310 area early Wednesday, Gold regained its traction and rose toward $2,320. Hawkish tone of Fed policymakers help the US Treasury bond yields edge higher and make it difficult for XAU/USD to gather bullish momentum.
Oil dips as Iran jacks up production ahead of OPEC meeting
Oil continues losing ground after surprise comments from Iran about increasing output. WTI Oil snaps below $78 and looks set to head to $75. The US Dollar Index ticks up with help from the Japanese Yen and market uncertainty.
Majors
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Signatures
AUD/USD YEARLY FORECAST
How could AUD/USD move this year? Our experts make an AUD/USD update forecasting the possible moves of the Aussie-US Dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2024 AUD/USD forecast!
AUD/USD FORECAST 2024
The Australian Dollar (AUD) started 2023 on a high note, though slumped closer to its post-pandemic low against the USD during the latter part of the year. The currency clawed back some of its steep declines during the final two months of 2023, and the outlook seems sunnier in the wake of the prevalent bearish sentiment surrounding the Greenback. Read more details about the forecast.
MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2024 FOR AUD/USD
Will the Fed will achieve a soft landing? The current market pricing for a more aggressive policy easing by the central bank next year might have already set the stage for a disappointment and favours the USD bulls. This should allow the USD to resume the prior uptrend witnessed since July 2023 and keep a lid on a runaway rally for the AUD/USD pair.
The upcoming US Presidential election could also play a key role in influencing the USD price dynamics and driving the aussie.
About AUD/USD
AUD/USD, The 'Aussie'
The AUD/USD pair, also called the “Aussie”, tells the trader how many US dollars (the quote currency) are needed to purchase one Australian dollar (the base currency). This currency pair is also known as the "Aussie". Together with the New Zealand Dollar and the Canadian Dollar, the AUD is a commodity currency, that is a currency whose country's exports are largely comprised of raw materials (precious metals, oil, agriculture, etc.).
The interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have been among the highest of industrialized countries and the relatively high liquidity of the AUD has made it an attractive tool for carry traders looking for a currency with the highest yields. These factors made the AUD very popular among currency traders.
AUD/USD CORRELATIONS
Australia is a big exporter to China and its economy and currency reflect any change in the situation in that country. The prevailing view is that the Australian Dollar offers diversification benefits in a portfolio containing the major world currencies because of its greater exposure to Asian economies.
This correlation with the Shanghai stock exchange is to be added to the correlation it has with gold. The pair AUD/USD often rises and falls along with the price of gold. In the financial world, gold is viewed as a safe haven against inflation and it is one of the most traded commodities.
ORGANIZATIONS, PEOPLE AND ECONOMIC DATA THAT INFLUENCE AUD/USD
The AUD/USD news can be seriously affected by the decisions taken by these organizations and people:
- Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) that issues statements and decides on the interest rates of the country. Its president is Michele Bullock.
- Australian Government and its Department of Finance that implement policies that affect the economy of the country.
- The US Government: events as administration statements, new laws and regulations or fiscal policy can increase or decrease the value of the US Dollar and the currencies traded against it, in this case, the Australian Dollar.
- Fed, the Federal Reserve of the United States whose president is Jerome Powell. The Fed controls the monetary policy, through active duties such as managing interest rates, setting the reserve requirement, and acting as a lender of last resort to the banking sector during times of bank insolvency or financial crisis.
In terms of economic data, as for most currencies, the AUDUSD traders have to keep an eye on:
- GDP (Gross Domestic Product), the total market value of all final goods and services produced in a country. It is a gross measure of market activity because it indicates the pace at which a country's economy is growing or decreasing. Generally speaking, a high reading or a better than expected number is seen as positive for the AUD, while a low reading is negative.
- Inflation measured by key indicators as the CPI (Core Price Index) and the PPI (Production Price Index), which reflect changes in purchasing trends.
- Current Trade Balance, a balance between exports and imports of total goods and services. A positive value shows trade surplus, while a negative value shows trade deficit. If a steady demand in exchange for AUD exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the AUD.
Michele Bullock
Michele Bullock is an Australian economist who is currently governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia. She commenced as governor on 18 September 2023, and is the first woman to hold the role. She is Chair of the Reserve Bank Board, Payments System Board and Council of Financial Regulators. Prior to her current role, Ms Bullock was the Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia.
Michele Bullock RBA's Profile and Wikipedia
Jerome Powell
Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.
Jerome Powell Fed's Profile and Wikipedia
RBA NEWS & ANALYSIS
FED NEWS & ANALYSIS
ASSETS THAT INFLUENCE AUD/USD THE MOST
- Currencies: NZD and JPY (New Zealand and Japan are important regional partners of Australia). Other important group of influent pairs includes: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD.
- Commodities: The most important is Gold, as already explained above, but also Iron Ore and Natural Gas.
- Bonds: GACGB10 (Australian Government Bonds Generic Yield 10 Year), GNZGB10 (New Zealand Government Bond 10 Year) and T-NOTE 10Y (10 year US Treasury note).
- Indices: S&P/ASX 200 (stocks of the Australian Securities Exchange), S&P/TSX Global Gold Index (includes producers of gold and related products at the Toronto Stock Exchange).